- October 1, 2009
- 3 Comments
Continued Employer Optimism and a Cautious Hiring Approach: CareerBuilder and USA TODAY Q4 2009 Job Forecast — Download Full Report
CareerBuilder and USA TODAY’s Q4 2009 Job Forecast shows that, while employers are feeling more optimistic about the economy and job market, the majority plan to keep their staff levels the same for the remainder of the year. Continued moderation in job loss and a hesitant approach to hiring is expected for the fourth quarter. Compensation trends in the fourth quarter are expected to mirror those of the last two quarters, as half of employers (51 percent) anticipate no change in salaries for full-time, permanent employees in the next three months.
The survey of more than 2,900 hiring managers and human resource professionals across various industries was conducted by Harris Interactive® from August 20 to September 9, 2009.
Looking Ahead
“Companies are switching their focus from cost containment to growth. Employers who have instituted pay cuts or layoffs in the last year are reporting that they have begun to restore compensation levels and rehire employees,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder.
“While these are positive indicators, the pace of hiring will remain restrained. It will take time to rebuild the confidence needed in the nation’s economy to trigger more robust recruitment programs.”
Q3 2009 v. Q4 2009
Who’s Hiring?
- Q3 2009: The number of employers who increased their full-time, permanent headcount in the third quarter was unchanged from the second quarter at 18 percent.
- Q4 2009: Seventeen percent of employers expect to add full-time, permanent employees.
Reducing headcount
- Q3 2009: Fifteen percent of employers reported declines in staff levels in the third quarter, an improvement from 17 percent in the second quarter.
- Q4 2009: Planned staff reductions continue to trend down; 10 percent anticipate a decrease in headcount.
No change in staff or undecided
- Q3 2009: Sixty-five percent of employers reported no change in their number of full-time, permanent employees, while one percent were undecided.
- Q4 2009: Sixty-eight percent anticipate no change, while 5 percent are undecided.
Employers Rehiring, Bringing Back Laid Off Workers, Reversing Pay Cuts and Strategy
Although employers have made moves to scale back spending and minimize risk in the wake of a financial crisis, they are also cognizant of the need to remain relevant and competitive. As the U.S. economy shows signs of stabilization, employers are reversing some of the strategies they had taken to manage through challenging economic times. Many are rehiring and bringing laid off employees back, as evidenced in the forecast:
- Twenty-seven percent of employers reported that, over the last year, they have laid off workers in one area, but hired in another.
- Primary areas of hiring were those linked to revenue, including technology, sales, customer service, and research and development.
Laid Off Workers: Employers are Bringing them Back
- Of employers who had layoffs in the last 12 months, one in four (26 percent) reported their company is planning to bring back some employees they let go earlier in the year.
- Of those rehiring laid off workers, 23 percent started extending job offers to former employees in the third quarter, while 19 percent say they will begin to do so in the fourth quarter.
- Nearly a quarter of employers (21 percent) will start bringing back laid off employees in the first quarter of 2010, while 15 percent are waiting until the second quarter of 2010. Others are holding off until the latter half of 2010 and beyond.
Reversing Pay Cuts
Nearly one in five employers (18 percent) reported their organizations implemented pay cuts in the last 12 months. But when will pay be restored?
Here are the results, broken down:
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- Categories: Economy
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The fact that it is being reported that “employers are FEELING more optimistic about the economy” is amazing to me. It’s meaningless. Look at the unemployment figures. What are the objective standards that are driving lay offs and separations from employment? What’s the truth behind the majority of these amorphous employers planning to keep their staff levels the same for the remainder of the year? Do they plan more lay-off and dismissals in January? And switching their focus from cost containment to growth means what exactly in an economy where most employers have had to take three steps back–is the one step forward really that meaningful to the economy?
Saying that it will take time to rebuild the confidence needed in the nation’s economy to trigger more robust recruitment programs is a flowery, empty statement and it sounds sadly like disinformation and spin. Just because planned staff reductions continue to trend down doesn’t mean it has stopped. Noting that lay-offs occurred in one area, but that people were hired in another doesn’t automatically create balance in the economy either.
We don’t need confidence and feelings, we need a thriving economy and we aren’t going to be there for a while, so strap in and spare us the pie charts. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
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In our small town the jobs are getting ready to boom with over 2,000 jobs in the next 3 months, the economy is looking better.