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Call Off Your Goons: ‘No Signs of Double Dip’ in Latest Jobs Report

Another monthly jobs report from the Labor Department, another mix of decent and not-overly-fantastic news.  Take a look at some of the more positive findings from the report:

  • Private companies added 67,000 jobs in August, more than the 41,000 economists had forecast, bringing the total number of jobs added in private sector employment since December 2009 to 763,000.
  • The numbers for previous months were revised to show an overall loss of 175,000 jobs in June rather than 221,000; and a loss of 54,000 in July, instead of 131,000.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent in August, and the number of temporary jobs rose by 16,800.

…and some of the not-so-positive findings:

  • Overall, the government lost 121,000 jobs in August, bring the total number of unemployed people to 14.86 million in August, up from 14.59 million in July.
  • The unemployment rate rose slightly to 9.6 percent from 9.5 percent (however, the increase is due mainly to the surge of people rejoining the labor force rather than job loss). 

While  today’s numbers didn’t reveal anything that hasn’t already been made very clear over the past several months (yes, we get that the economy is recovering, and yes, we also understand that it’s taking its sweet time to do so, and yes, we’re more than aware that we shouldn’t get too excited just yet, okay?)…

…there is one little nugget of information we can take home: August’s better-than-predicted job growth seems to disprove recent speculation from economists that we might be headed toward a double-dip recession. Scott Brown, an economist at Raymond James, told NPR that he sees no sign of the country slipping back into recession. “You’re still seeing broad-based job gains. It’s not strong, but it’s positive,” he said.

Over at The New York Times, however, Credit Union National Association economist Bill Hampel indicated that he’d like to see the job growth numbers surpass 100,000 before we can be sure we won’t slip back into a recession. “We need it over 150,000 to feel confident we have a nice, sustainable recovery,” he was quoted as saying.

More Reactions to Today’s Numbers…
Overall, economists’ speculation on the future of the recovery is cautious but optimistic. Here’s what others are saying in response to today’s numbers:

 “While the economy is still soft, at least it is expanding. Unless the Fed sees a double-dip recession or deflation as a risk, it will be in wait-and-see mode and we do not expect Fed hikes until 2012.” – Michell Meyer, senior US economist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

“If you look at it in absolute terms, it’s not very good. But relative to expectations, it’s clearly better than expected and it suggests we’re still growing. We’re not growing very fast, but it doesn’t suggest the situation is continuing to deteriorate.” – Nigel Gault, chief US economist, IHS Global Insight

“You have to take these earnings reports relative to expectations, so all in all this will be reviewed as a favorable report showing that the private sector is stabilizing and once we get past the drag from the census – and I think we are close to being past the drag from the census – that we will start to see some positive numbers for the totals in the months ahead.” - Robert Dye, senior economist, PNC Financial Services Group

“Obviously one month doesn’t make a trend, but hopefully this means the next couple of months will show continued growth.” - Cort Gwon, director of trading strategies and research, FBN Securities

“This will offer short-term relief to currency and equity markets by reducing stress on the Federal Reserve to add more stimulus.” – Kathy Lien, director of currency research, GFT

Mary Lorenz

About Mary Lorenz

Mary is a copywriter for CareerBuilder, specializing in B2B marketing and corporate recruiting best practices and social media. In addition to creating copy for corporate advertising and marketing campaigns, she researches and writes about employee attraction, engagement and retention. Whenever possible, she makes references to pop culture. Sometimes, those references are even relevant. A New Orleans native, Mary now lives in Chicago, right down the street from the best sushi place in the city. It's awesome.
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